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“It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.” – Neil Armstrong (1930-2012)

Fresh Reads from the Science 'o sphere!

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Redundancy Redundancy

I think that creationists who support the concept of irreducible complexity don't really understand what their idea entails.

They seem to think that a biological system (or subsystem) is made up of absolutely interdependent and indispensible components - if any of these parts was suddenly removed, then the whole system would fall apart.



















Even a cursory glance at reality tells us that this is not true.

People don't disintegrate if their fingers, hands or arms are chopped off - indeed they can stay alive for a while even if a critical organ like the liver is removed, otherwise organ transplants would be impossible.

But assuming that some irreducibly complex system can be found, it still doesn't follow that the system could not have developed via stepwise evolution.

To illustrate this: imagine that you have been appointed as the CEO of a large corporation today, and you decide to sack the entire sales department immediately.

This would inflict a severe wound on the company which can cause the whole company to collapse if competent replacements are not quickly found. That's because the critical functions of a corporation have been delegated to departments which have become highly specialized and optimized over time.

Clearly, finding such an irreducibly complex corporation today doesn't mean that it MUST have poofed into existence by supernatural means!

It just means that roles of its members have gradually changed over time.

When the company was in its infancy, it had only a few staff members.

Everyone helped out to do sales, so there was no sales department.

That wasn't particularly efficient but it didn't need to be, because a small company simply didn't require (and couldn't afford) a proper sales department.

Likewise, hundreds of millions of years ago our simple animal ancestors didn't have any hearts or brains - they just didn't need them. Of course, we won't last long without these critical organs today.

In any case, complex biological systems can tolerate a certain amount of damage or loss of their subsystems because they exhibit modularity (to reduce spill-over effects) and redundancy (to backup some functions).

However, if there exists a system which has absolute component interdependency, no modularity and no redundancy, then the creationists would be right and any small change would bring down the whole shebang.

Such a system cannot be "constructed" by any stepwise process; indeed it cannot be physically constructed at all and must magically come into existence completely intact.

The fact that creationists prefer to assume that biological systems must be organized in such a manner, reflects strongly on their ideology.

**********

In my previous full article about social systems, I talked about some of the problems of an absolute authority, but I forgot to elaborate on the importance of redundancy, which I will highlight in this article.

Absolute authorities are problematic due to the lack of checks and balances, but singular absolute authorities have an additional problem - the lack of redundancy.

If a system contains redundant components, then it will continue running even if some of its components are flawed or missing.

On the other hand, if a system contains no redundancy at all, then the imperfection of one component will lead to the collapse of the whole system.

Thus, people who believe in singular supernatural authorities tend to have a worldview that contains no redundancy and brooks no dissent.

They can only be absolutely right or absolutely wrong, because any "wrongness" of any one part would render the whole belief wrong (although in practice they take on faith that no part of their belief can possibly be wrong).

Seeing the world through such tinted glasses, they expect other social systems to exhibit this same characteristic.

Of course, this is false - even within the area of supernatural belief, people who believe in multiple deities for example, do not share this problem.

Also, systems that do not depend on central authority don't have this problem.

Science, for example, is made up of multiple specializations. In addition, scientific theories and facts are discovered using independent lines of evidence, often employing diverse approaches or technologies.

So if any particular fact, theory or even an entire field is shown to be wrong, it won't bring down the entire scientific endeavour.

Thus, redundancy is a strong defensive move.

This is clearly illustrated in the previous post about investor psychology - diversification helps to preserve capital and guard against the big loss.

Unfortunately, diversification also diminishes the gains from any particular stock, which suggests that singularity is a strong offensive move.

And that is definitely true from the historical point of view - monotheistic belief systems have grown faster and to far greater numbers than any other supernatural or naturalistic system.

My previous articles have already covered the reasons why a centralized and rigid power structure is so effective against a fragmented power-sharing structure.

Since science is driven by evidence, not by central authority and social consensus - thus it mean that, as a social movement, scientific thinking will never be able to compete with supernatural beliefs?

Not quite.

Although science appears fragmented because it cannot in principle have unity through centralized supernatural authority, it can have unity through emergent authority.

A unity of knowledge.

**********

Regular Fresh Brainz readers might have been wondering why I embarked on this odd detour into foreign territory such as sociology and economics in my recent articles.

Well, the gig is up - all these articles constitute the prologue to an original idea that I have been developing for the past ten years.

I had originally planned to hone it in secret and publish it in a book to make a tonne of money, but many events have since transpired that made me change my mind.

Facing a depressing job market and a difficult career ahead, I don't feel confident about the relevance and usefulness of my idea, and so I have decided to post what I've currently worked out to all my readers.

Stay tuned for the first post about FAMILIAR: Fractal-Analog Method of Integrating Limitless Information into Aligned Resources.


Would you like to know more?

Prologue to FAMILIAR:
Part 1 -
The Meanings Of Life
Part 2 -
Elitism: Human Warmth or Weakness?
Part 3 -
Not Right, But Necessary
Part 4 -
In Fiat We Trust
Part 5 -
When The Sane Go Marching In
Part 6 -
Downfall Of Gods

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Mass Psychology In The Markets

Here's an interesting series of video presentations that seeks to explain investor behaviour in the markets.






Click on the links below for the next few parts:

Part 2 - Investor decision-making process

Part 3 - Common investor mistakes

Part 4 - Reducing portfolio risk

**********

You are thinking: "Dude, what's with all this money-talk on a science blog? Did you just sell out?"

Well, first of all I'm obviously not an expert on investment matters, and so I can't verify the accuracy of these presentations, let alone endorse them.

However, I do like the clear, matter-of-fact and level-headed presentation style of these videos.

And the fact that they are abysmally underviewed (even less than Fresh Brainz vlogs???) makes me suspect that their core message has not been overhyped to achieve popular appeal and thus might bear a fair resemblance to reality.

There are two additional reasons why I highlight this set of videos:

1. The economic mess that we're stuck in right now is a social phenomenon.

Pouring billions of dollars into stimulus packages is only part of the solution. Without the recovery of confidence, all that money will simply get stashed away, prolonging the recession and also becoming a future inflation hazard.

Knowledge is essential to confidence and a better understanding of investor behaviour will help to boost the recovery of confidence. These videos, at the very least, illuminate some features of investor behaviour.

In addition, the mainstream media has so far focused on reporting horror stories about the economy from the financial perspective, with practically no regard to the psychological aspects.

Markets are not made of indices; they are made of people. To ignore the human element is to ignore the chief driving force behind both the causation and the cessation of this recession.

2. Listen to the investment trade-offs discussed by the presenter.

For example: established companies give you steady gains, while new companies have potential for greater gains. But an increased potential for gains also comes with increased risk of loss.

So to protect your principal you should diversify your portfolio. But diversify too much and you will lose the potential for significant gains.

Does it sound like... molecular evolution?

Eg. deeply conserved genes tend to persist, while new genes come and go. But new genes have a greater potential for functional innovation as well as a greater risk of deleterious effects...

Here at Fresh Brainz, we believe that it's not totally coincidental that some fields of human knowledge can have an uncanny resemblance to other fields - because there may be a similar (but not exactly the same) underlying structure beneath them.

We will explore this idea in greater detail in the coming posts.


Would you like to know more?
-
Behavioral Economics (Wikipedia)

Monday, January 26, 2009

Solar Eclipse In Singapore

It's the first day of the Ox Year today, and after a hectic day of visiting relatives, I managed to catch the partial solar eclipse that occurred this evening.

I don't have any sophisticated equipment for taking eclipse photos directly, so I used my old solar projection rig (which I built in 2004 to observe the Transit of Venus) to project an image of the Sun onto a piece of card instead.

All the times indicated are in local Singapore time:













4:38 pm

Here you can see the solar disk projected onto a piece of white card, with the top part looking a little flat as the Moon slowly drifts in "downwards".

The image is inverted, which means the Moon is actually at the lower left (southwest) moving upwards (towards northeast).

My solar projection rig was constructed using a cheap 8x21 monocular mounted on pieces of cardboard - don't use expensive optics for this application because there is a good chance that the intense solar heat will gradually destroy the rear lens elements.

And it's unnecessary to use large aperture binoculars for this purpose (eg. 7x50 or 8x40) because the Sun is already insanely bright and the greater light gathering power of such equipment will only ruin your optics faster. Reserve your good binos for night use.

Of course, you don't need any complex optics to observe a solar eclipse. Eclipse glasses or a simple pinhole camera will suffice (however pinhole cameras are totally rubbish for planetary transits, which is why I had to build my rig to project a big enough image).













4.46 pm

The Moon has moved in further and you can clearly see the curvature of its shadow.

Some people are surprised by the fact that the Moon actually travels from the west towards the east while orbiting the Earth.

The Moon appears to rise in the east and set in the west because of the Earth's rotation on its axis. Since the Moon's orbital motion is much slower, it is more easily perceived from night to night.

If you observe the night sky at the same time on successive nights, you will notice that the Moon gradually drifts towards the east, relative to the Sun and the background stars.













5:06 pm

The Moon takes a bigger bite out of the solar disk.

*Chomp!*

One of the problems with amateur astronomy as a hobby is that it is highly weather-dependent - there will be many occasions when spectacular astronomical phenomena will simply be blocked from view by clouds, haze or good old light pollution.

It can be deeply frustrating, especially for people who have travelled all the way to the Science Centre or some remote dark sky location only to be confronted with useless seeing conditions.

Unfortunately, there is no way around it. You just have to get used to facing disappointment.

Just like real life!

This solar eclipse was no exception; the sky was filled with thick clouds near the western horizon, and half the time the Sun was behind clouds looking all blurry and shapeless.

When that sort of thing happens all you can do is to sit and wait.

(Now you understand why far more people are into photography - it's an all-weather hobby!)













5:38 pm

Fortunately the sky cleared up temporarily so I managed to catch this shot where over 70% of the solar disk was covered by the Moon.

A nice, sharp crescent!

Maximal coverage was supposed to be at 6:02 pm, but unfortunately from my vantage point the Sun had descended into increasingly thicker clouds and so I couldn't follow the eclipse any further.

If you have missed this solar eclipse, the next one will occur in India on 22th July 2009. That one will be a total eclipse - the sort where you can see the solar corona, stars in the daytime, hear birds singing and all that.

If you intend to wait it out in Singapore, then the next substantial one will be in January 2010, although less than a third of the solar disk will be covered.

A more exciting one will be the annular (ring-shaped) eclipse of December 2019 where over 90% of the solar disk will be covered.


Would you like to know more?
-
Eclipses visible in Singapore (Science Centre)
- Photos of the 26 Jan 2009 Partial Solar Eclipse (ClubSNAP Forums)

Ray Comfort Disproves Darwin!

Ray Comfort has discovered Darwin's lost writings about the incredible mechanism behind human evolution!




Heh, not quite.

More like he totally made up a new mechanism of human evolution to bash, which if it was true would actually support special creation because no other mammal reproduces in such a bizarre manner.

I don't really know what to make of Ray Comfort.

Putting religious tracts on the back of million-dollar novelty bills is such an extreme expression of cynicism and misanthropy that I wonder if we should call Poe's Law on his entire career.


Would you like to know more?
- Ray Comfort gets it half right (Pharyngula)

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Photo Gallery Eleven

Renowned photojournalist Robert Capa once said "If your pictures aren't good enough, you're not close enough".

While that pertains more specifically to war photography, I often feel that many of my photographs are just not close enough to be striking.

And so the theme for this round of photos is "Close Enough". Hope you like 'em!













Attention!
(2008) Fuji J10













Pink Dragonfly
(2008) Fuji S6500fd













Sparkles of Gold
(2009) Nikon L5













Spiral Orchid
(2008) Fuji s6500fd













Tiny Beads
(2008) Nikon L5













Watch Closely
(2009) Nikon L5

Fresh Brainz wishes all our Chinese readers a Happy 牛 Year - may we find our "Sparkles of Gold" this year!


Would you like to know more?
- Photo Gallery Ten